Many who wouldn’t vote for Trump say they’re more likely to vote for a third party rather than Biden WASHINGTON — A small but substantial chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they would be so dissatisfied if Donald Trump became the party’s presidential nominee that they would not vote for him in November’s general election, according to AP VoteCast.

An analysis of the data shows that many of those voters were unlikely to vote for Trump, some even before this year, but it still points to potential problems for the former president as he looks to consolidate the nomination and pivot toward an expected rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.

According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, two in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall.

This unwillingness to contemplate a presidential vote for Trump isn’t confined to voters in the earliest states.

Lee and Bill Baltzell defected from the Republican Party to register as independents a year ago. They attended a rally for supporters of Trump’s last major rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, last week in Centennial, Colorado, to encourage her to keep running against Trump.

“We don’t know that Trump will run into more legal problems and be disqualified, and I’d rather not see Biden in there for another four years,” said Bill Baltzell, 60.

If it’s between Biden and Trump, Lee Baltzell, 58, said she would consider writing in an alternative.

“I don’t know. I did not vote for Biden the last time; I don’t know that I could do it this time. But I don’t know if I could vote for Trump.”

Opposition from voters like the Baltzells hasn’t slowed Trump’s march toward the nomination, but it could be an issue for him later on. It’s not clear how much of a problem, though, because a dive into the numbers shows that many of the “never-Trump” voters in the early states were unlikely to vote for him in the general election to begin with.

Many of the voters who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump as the nominee aren’t Republicans at all. In the first three head-to-head contests, anywhere from 17% to 31% of the voters who said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election identified as Democrats, and between 14% and 27% identified as independents.