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What's in Store for United Airlines in Q1 Earnings?

United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 16, after market close. UAL has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 17.84%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 31.7% downward over the last 60 days. Given this backdrop, let's examine the factors likely to have influenced United Airlines' performance in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect high fuel costs to have dented UAL's bottom-line performance in the March quarter. Even though, oil price has come down from the highs witnessed earlier, the same still remains high. For first-quarter 2024, we expect the average fuel cost per gallon to be $3.38 per gallon, higher than the first-quarter 2023 actual figure of $3.33. Additionally, UAL is burdened with expenses related to non-fuel unit costs. Non-fuel unit cost or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted) is expected to increase in mid-single digits from first-quarter 2023 levels. High labor costs and low capacity are leading to the uptick. Our estimate hints at a 5.2% increase from the year-ago levels. Labor costs are likely to have ...